This is the Year of Linux on the Desktop
Every year on Slashdot or some Linux-promoting website, you'll hear claims that such-and-such will be the year of desktop Linux. It's as if the last digit on the year increases by one that it increases the chance that my grandmother will be using Ubuntu or whatever popular distribution of the year instead of Windows 98, XP, Vista, or whatever version of Microsoft's operating system that has since been released.
Slashdot was chosen because it chooses to run these articles frequently. You would think that in the past decade or so that Slashdot that has been around that they'd realise that it will not happen. I am not one to advocate a particular operating system, but reality is sort of distorted for this group of people.
This article is here to show that every year has been the year of Linux on the desktop, and I think that every next year will be indeed such.
2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004
2008
2008 - Year of Linux Desktop?
July 6, 2007
"Over at Maximum PC, we're betting that Linux will pick up unprecedented momentum in the coming year. With phenomenal new distros, swelling international support, and a little extra momentum from Dell, we think Linux is poised to exploit the current atmosphere of doubt surrounding Vista and pick up serious traction in '08. 'For end users here in North America, Linux poses a low barrier to entry. While many still balk at an upgrade to Vista (typically centered around cost and restrictive licensing terms), those who are curious about the open-source alternative will find few of these obstacles. And an increasingly rich array of ready-to-run software (not to mention surprisingly effective utilities that let you run many Windows apps) makes it easy switch ... Ultimately, I'm not predicting that Linux will take
over the market next year. Or anytime soon, for that matter. But if there's ever been a time to try out the world's leading free OS, 2008 will be that time. I am predicting that users will switch to Linux in record numbers next year. And many will never look back.'"
I still wager that Apple will take these "potential Linux-users" away.
2007
Can Apple Take Microsoft on the Desktop?
March 4, 2007
"RDM asks Can Apple Take Microsoft on the Desktop?, a comparison of recent sales and profits and the future outlook for Macs and PCs. It's the opinion of the article's author that Apple doesn't have to take a majority share of the desktop market to win. The key is to take the most valuable segments of the market. They show via a few quick financial numbers that even though Apple is selling fewer machines, they're making more money per machine
than your Dells or your Gateways. Not being beholden to Microsoft gives them a big advantage when competing with traditional PC sellers. Once Apple is positioned, Microsoft will be forced to choose whether it wants to battle Mac OS X for control of the slick consumer desktop, or repurpose Windows as a cheaper, mass market alternative to Linux in corporate sales. If it doesn't make a choice, the company will face difficult battles on two fronts.""
Somehow I doubt that Microsoft will be dropping the home market for the business market anytime soon. This is an Apple article more or less, but because it is played like any other Linux article, it fits.
What Will Happen in IT in 2007?
December 30, 2006
"ZDNet's Paul Murphy has set out his IT predictions for 2007. Featured among the completely predictable, OpenSolaris overtaking Linux is apparently inevitable within one year. From the article: 'By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.' Is 2007 the year of the OpenSolaris desktop? Other 'inevitables' include Microsoft's success with Vista, the continuing phase-out of Itanium, and the Cell processor powering most of the world's
super-computers."
The beauty of this is that it is OpenSolaris "taking over."
2006
Novell Expects Vista to Spur Linux Adoption
September 13, 2005
"According to the Register, Novell expects the cost of upgrading to Vista will encourage many companies to turn to Linux instead. From the article: 'Jack Messman, chief executive of networking software vendor Novell says that 2006 will see widespread adoption of Linux on the corporate desktop. According to Messman the catalyst will be the release of Microsoft Windows Vista and the high costs associated with upgrading. Obviously, if they're right Novell hopes that turn will be toward SUSE Linux.'"
Vista adoption has been slow, but since its release, there has been a gradual adoption of it. Novell is off the mark here--no surprise.
Vista Launch Good for Desktop Linux?
August 27, 2005
XYZ Computing has an article hypothesizing that the arrival of Windows Vista may be a big opportunity for Linux to make headway on the desktop. Massive feature cutbacks for Vista as well as huge hardware requirements are cited as major factors. From the article: 'As the time gets closer and closer to the public debut of Vista the operating system seems to be
constantly losing the luster which was associated with Longhorn...Whether it's the lack of a new file system or the Monad scripting shell, the absence of innovation in this operating system is giving it a black eye'. The article then shows the need for action to be taken to get Linux onto the computers in stores (display models!), and pinpoints a few important improvements Linux distros in general need to make. Very interesting read, and timely."
Somehow I get the notion that a grassroots campaign is needed to get Linux going in the homes of millions is the only way to go. Of course, because of the lacking of some advanced version of NTFS with enhancements made by SQL will cause consumers to drop the Windows operating system from their homes.
2005
Gartner Predicts Linux Gains In 2005
November 16, 2004
"According to news in The Australian, Gartner research is predicting big gains for Linux from Microsoft in 2005, including desktop adoption in the public sector and banks. In fact, Gartner is also predicting that '40 percent of large financial services organizations will have deployed Linux' by 2005. Seems a little optimistic to me, but it is better than predictions the other way!"
While this article mainly focused on enterprise, it still indicates that Linux will become more mainstream as a desktop OS in the corporate environment.
2004
Linus Says 2004 is the Year for Desktop Linux
January 15, 2004
"Linuxworld Australia has an interview with Linus Torvalds about the current state of the Linux desktop and where it will go this year among other things. Also discussed are topics such as hardware support, the SCO issue, and whether or not he will be moving to Australia."
Wait... Linus said what?
CW: Any plans for 2004?
LT: I've never had much of a plan for the direction of Linux as I react to outside pressure. This year there will be a lot of desktop users, which will impact kernel developers.
At least Linus is somewhat less delusional, but I like how the Slashdot title pretty much skews what Linus was saying. He was saying that it would be a good year and that there would be more users, but it wouldn't be Linux's year.
Linux in 2004?
November 23, 2003
"John Terpstra and Eric S. Raymond have started the ball rolling on LinuxWorld's poll of the community for what they think will happen in the world of Linux in 2004. Terpstra says 'I predict that during 2004 at least one significant USA government body will adopt Linux on the desktop.'"
Here's a small snippet an editor made...
Depending on how you define "significant", this has already occurred.
Because of the time that it would take to determine if 2004 was a success or not by using what was expected in 2003, I decided to put off listing what a failure it likely was.